What makes this “unfair” is that this is not the arrangement that the Provincial Government has been making with other Ontario cities.

In Toronto, the Ontario Government is directly building and paying for the entirety of the TTC’s new Eglinton Crosstown LRT. Likewise, Ontario is footing the bill for the TTC’s subway system to be extended north into Richmond Hill. These are only two examples, but the theme is consistent in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), local municipalities are only paying for supporting infrastructure, and the new LRT and subway systems are being entirely built and paid for with provincial money. A literal gift to those cities.

In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), the Provincial Government subsidizes transit services equal to $191 per-resident (2022-23 numbers), while Ottawa’s region (which also includes the five other transit agencies in eastern Ontario) got $59.61. This disparity is also going to widen in 2024-25, with Toronto’s per-resident subsidy rising to $196.49 and Ottawa’s falling to $31.91. I want to emphasize that that is per-resident, and the GTHA has a population of over 7.2 million people. Additionally, Toronto and the Province have struck a deal, where Ontario will provide $300 million of the TTC operating budget this year. These are all numbers were proactively shared by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/transit-subsidies-2024.

OC Transpo has made its fair share of mistakes, but, if Ottawa was given even half the deal given to other Ontario cities, OC Transpo would NOT be in the financial situation it is in.

Beyond any transit infrastructure pressures, OC Transpo has also been contending with post-pandemic ridership numbers. The impact of the pandemic and working from home has had a direct and lasting effect on OC Transpo’s operations and finances. At a time when near all other transit systems in Canada (and likely all of North America) have not only returned to 2019 ridership levels, but are well exceeding them, Ottawa is still only at 75% of what it was in 2019, and forecasts do not expect it to return to pre-pandemic levels until upwards of 10 years from now. To be clear, I do not support forced back-to-office decisions simply to fund Ottawa’s transit system, but at the same time, I am realistic that there is a consequence to fewer workers heading into the workplace. Fewer regular riders not only mean fewer individual trips taken, but also fewer monthly passes being purchased. This has a direct impact of tens of millions of dollars in revenue.

While other cities across Canada are facing the same budget issues with their transit systems, Ottawa is unique in just how many of workers are Federal public servants, and that impact is having an exponential effect. Other cities are also struggling with the inflationary costs and depressed ridership, but now that they are exceeding 2019 levels; they are only dealing with lower than expected (as of 2019) future growth. Ottawa would be in a far better position were that our case, instead for us this deficit is now structural.

These factors have led to a $120 million budget shortfall in OC Transpo’s operations. This is the hole that the Mayor’s budget has been seeking to close. To be clear, $120 million does not improve the service, it is simply to maintain the status quo operations. It is also important to note that over the past years, Ottawa City Council has also made record new investments in funding transit. While this shortfall is structural it only speaks to the status quo operations. Operating costs have still increased year over year, and the proposed 2025 budget still sees an increase of another $88 million, an 11% increase over 2024. For further context, since 2016, OC Transpo’s budget has increased by 62%, and this year will come in at over $856 million. This further underlines just how impactful this $120 million shortfall really is.

This is what led the Mayor to split OC Transpo’s budget from the rest of the City’s budget, and this past summer gave them the direction to consider various revenue sources to close that shortfall:

• Funding of between $0 and $120 million from the federal and provincial governments
• A transit levy increase of between 2.9% and 37%
• A fare increase between 2.5% and 75%
• Fare discount adjustments for consideration to be itemized as part of the tabled 2025 Draft Transit Budget
• Operating efficiencies and/ or service reductions between $0 and $120 million
• Identify a list of Capital investment deferrals for consideration as part of the tabled 2025 Draft Transit Budget
• Identify any other levers for consideration as part of the tabled 2025 Draft Transit Budget

As expected, the budget presented by Mayor Sutcliffe sought to strike a balance, utilizing several of the revenue options and “spread the burden around”.

His tabled budget includes an increase of 8% to the transit levy, representing an additional 1% increase in property taxes, which if passed, will bring the total increase up to 3.9% for next year. This includes fare increases across the board:

• Adult base fares up 5.3%, from $3.80 (2024) to $4.00 (2025), paid by card
• Cash fares up 5.2%, from $3.85 to $4.05
• Adult monthly passes up 4.9%, from $128.75 to $135
• Senior monthly passes up 120.4%, from $49 to $108
• Day passes up 2.1%, from $11.75 to $12
• Three-day passes up 5.3%, from $28.50 to $30
• U-passes (per semester) up 5%, from $229.07 to $240.52

Additionally, these changes still leave a $36 million shortfall that the Mayor is confident he can get from the upper levels of government. However, I am pragmatic when it comes to such financial issues, and until there is a cheque in his hands, I am aware that nothing is a “done deal”. In the end, if that money does not come through, it must be made up somewhere else.

With all of this in mind, I still have serious concerns regarding the changes to the transit passes. Specifically, the increase to senior’s monthly bus passes. Closing such a massive budget shortfall would always require difficult and painful choices, but specific to the seniors pass, I find that a bridge too far. The working group the Mayor created to tackle the $120 million hole, has since explained that the senior pass change is about equity.

Under the existing system, senior passes are being heavily subsidized by all other fares and passes. Whereas the other monthly passes were equal to 33.3 – 33.9 individual trips (except for the Community pass for those on the Ontario Disability Support Program, which is at 24.7 trips), the senior pass was equal to only 16.9 trips. The new changes make all passes (except for the Community pass which stays the same) equal to the same 33.3 – 33.8 individual trips (the regular adult pass becomes slightly cheaper).

On paper, it certainly makes sense to bring equity to the fare system, but in practice, I am still concerned. Seniors are by and large on fixed incomes, and those least able to absorb new costs. They cannot ask for a raise, look for a new job, etc. At a time when all the other costs of living are increasing, maybe this “inequality” is completely justifiable.

I have to wonder how much this change will even make to OC Transpo’s bottom line. I cannot imagine the impact to OC Transpo’s financials justifying the oversized impact to Ottawa seniors. As a result, as it stands, I cannot see myself supporting this proposal. But I need to hear from you, and your thoughts, both on the changes to the passes, but also the proposed changes in general.

Whatever decisions are made will set Ottawa on a certain path. I need to hear from you about how you feel about this approach. $120 million is a substantial shortfall, and requires funding from somewhere, do you support the Mayor’s approach, would you prefer to see more of the burden placed in one area, and less another. I have added a new survey on my website, you can find it below, and I ask that everyone, whether you live in my Ward or not, please fill it out and let me know how you feel about the options before us.

As I referenced earlier, the transit portion of the budget is important, but it cannot be allowed to eclipse what this budget means for the future of infrastructure in Ottawa.

I have aways supported property taxes being as absolutely affordable as possible, while prioritizing fiscally responsible budgets that invest in our community. On this front, I am relieved that we are actually starting to see more investments in local infrastructure.

As many are aware, the need for greater investment in our aging infrastructure, whether that be roads, sidewalks, City buildings, multi-use pathways (MUPs), etc. is a drum I have been beating my entire time on Council. It is important that, in times when everyone is facing financial pressures, the City separate wants from needs. While I personally believe that we need to still see far more investment on these fronts, I do want to acknowledge that, and while the details will still have to be determined, the budget proposes over $2.5 million specifically for residential roads in Ward 2.

Arterial and major roads carry the vast majority of vehicular traffic through our community, as a result, when it comes to prioritizing resurfacing projects, those roads will typically push side streets and residential roads further down the list. This past year, I introduced a motion at Council to have staff reassess how they approach their road selection process, as it has meant that residential roads will effectively never see anything more than extensive patchwork.

While I welcome more of this new roadwork and hope that it signals a shift in approach, my concerns regarding properly meeting our infrastructure maintenance needs remain. If much needed maintenance work continues to get further pushed down the road and delayed, not only does it mean we will see bigger property tax increases in future years to pay for work that should be happening today, but it also means we will likely end up paying more. Waiting for infrastructure to fail, and having to complete emergency repairs, is always more expensive than maintaining our roads, sidewalks, buildings, parks, etc. properly.

When I am door knocking in the community, residents consistently point to their street behind me and talk about the poor condition of their roadway, pockmarked with potholes and patches. They talk about feeling the vibrations whenever a bus or truck goes by. They talk about taking their kids to the park and using the same equipment that they used when they were kids. These are all City assets, and it is imperative that the City properly maintains them and replaces them when they are at the end of life.

Ottawa has over 1,000 km more roadways than Toronto, we are geographically larger than Toronto, Montréal, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver all COMBINED, yet we have a fraction of Toronto’s population (taxpayer base) and budget. For comparison, Toronto’s operating budget last year was $17.1 billion, with a 10-year capital budget of $49 billion. Last year, Ottawa had a $4.6 billion operating budget and a capital budget (ours is done year by year) of $1.24 billion. Ottawa is near unrivalled in our being a major City, while also compared against our vast our size and infrastructure requirements.

City	2023	2024	2025
Ottawa	2.50%	2.50%	3.90%
Toronto	5.50%	9.50%	*1
Edmonton	4.96%	8.90%	8.10%
Calgary	5.50%	7.80%	3.90%
Vancouver	10.70%	7.50%	9.90%
Clarence-Rockland * 2	8.40%	9.94%	13.40%
Kingston	3.35%	3.50%	8.90%
Cornwall	3.61%	4.21%	6.76%
Brampton * 2	5.70%	6.40%	*1
Mississauga* 2	6.10%	7.20%	8.20%
Hamilton	5.80%	5.79%	6.90%

*1 – Toronto and Brampton do not release their budgets until 2025. Economists expect Toronto’s 2025 tax increase to be around 7%.
* 2 – These cities are two-tiered municipalities, with residents paying property taxes to both the city and the region. The figures presented include both increases.

The Mayor has already said that 2026’s budget will also have “hard choices”. While I am aware that the 2025 Budget conversation has been understandably focused on transit, it is imperative that we continue to see investments in other areas of the City. In Budget 2025, we are seeing increasing infrastructure investment, but this budget is also setting us on a path for the future, and it is imperative that, if we want to continue to increase these investments into the future, that we find a way to pay for it.

On these issues, again I need to hear from you. I cannot emphasize enough how different this budget has been from any of the previous of my time on Council. Please fill out my survey and share your feedback with me.

As the budget was only released on Wednesday, and details over $6 billion in spending, I am still reading through the various department’s budgets, and diving into the specifics.

As I mentioned earlier, under the Provincial changes, the Mayor has the ultimate authority to prepare and pass a municipality’s budget. Council may try to introduce amendments to his budget, but the Mayor always has the ability to veto our changes, and only if 2/3 of Council members (17 Councillors) vote to support the changes can that veto be overridden. To those that have followed municipal politics from the days of Mayor Watson, or earlier, these “Strong Mayor Power” changes from the Province are not optional, and completely rewrite how budgets were approved in the past.

This is one of the most consequential budgets during my time on Council. I need to hear from you now more than ever.